Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak heat recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data for June at this station shows daily highs typically ranging between 25°C and 30°C, with averages near 27°C and rarely exceeding 30°C[1][6]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range is 0% YES, traders should note that past June extremes in Shanghai have consistently stayed within this moderate band, making outlier claims statistically improbable without a sudden, unforecasted heatwave[3][7].

Traders must monitor real-time weather updates for local thunderstorms or cloud cover, which can suppress peak temperatures, as well as official forecasts indicating a 60% chance of precipitation and highs near 27°C (81°F) for the immediate period[2]. A key catalyst is the release of updated hourly data from the National Weather Service, which tracks temperature and dew point fluctuations over the last 72 hours and could signal rapid shifts in atmospheric conditions[4]. While regulatory frameworks like Germany’s GlüStV and US CFTC rules impose KYC thresholds, the “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows smaller participants to access this market without identity verification, provided they remain under the limit, though this does not exempt them from broader compliance obligations under tax or anti-money laundering statutes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.