Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific temperature range, reflecting the market’s view that the outcome will fall outside the offered bracket, likely due to the high variability of June weather in Shanghai.

Historical data shows June is Shanghai’s wettest month, with an average of 11.7 wet days and 6.3 inches of rain, making extreme heat less predictable than in drier seasons[1][6]. Past June temperatures at Pudong average 26°C, but daily highs can swing significantly depending on cloud cover and precipitation[6]. Comparable cases from 2025 show hourly fluctuations between 18°C and 30°C, underscoring why a 0% probability may signal a mismatch between the bracket and likely outcomes rather than certainty of a specific result[8].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly updates and any sudden shifts in regional cloud patterns or rainfall forecasts, as these directly influence peak temperature[3][5]. A recent BBC forecast for nearby Hongqiao Airport indicates rising temperatures through late June, with highs reaching 30°C by 27 June, suggesting a warming trend that could affect Pudong’s peak on 23 June[2]. Regulatory accessibility remains a factor: German GlüStV implications may restrict participation for some users, while US CFTC reach introduces compliance considerations for larger trades. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows broader access for smaller positions, but traders must remain aware of jurisdictional limits and reporting obligations tied to prediction market activity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.