Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s **maximum temperature** at Pudong International Airport on 22 June is the settlement variable, with the market resolving to the Wunderground day-high for that station. On the evidence available at 6:50 UTC, the crowd is assigning **0% YES**, which is consistent with a market that is trading against an outcome still dependent on the afternoon warming cycle and any rain-driven suppression of highs.[1][4]

June is climatologically a hot, humid, and rain-prone month in Shanghai, with airport climate pages describing June and July as the wettest part of the year and historical June data showing repeated daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C rather than extreme heat.[5][2][7] That matters for reading the current price: a zero-implied outcome is usually less a view on the actual weather than a reflection of how the contract is structured, the settlement clock, and the fact that the relevant reading is a single-station daily high rather than a citywide average.[1][3]

For accessibility, the regulatory lens is practical rather than theoretical. If the venue is offering **no-KYC up to $1,500**, that means small-position access can be available without identity verification until that threshold is reached, but users above it should expect onboarding friction and a reduced ability to scale exposure. For German users, the **GlüStV** framework is the key market-access constraint, because event-based betting can fall within gambling regulation depending on structure and local interpretation; in the US, the **CFTC** can still matter if a product is viewed as a commodity-event contract offered to US persons, even when the underlying is weather rather than politics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.