Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s peak temperature is typically set by a narrow summer band rather than abrupt extremes: June highs at Pudong Airport usually rise through the month, with average daily highs around 77°F to 83°F, and readings above 92°F described as rare in the long-run climate profile.[1] That background helps explain why the current market has leaned heavily towards the upper-20s Celsius and why a 0% crowd-implied price on YES is more a statement about positioning than about meteorology.[2]

For market reading, comparable Shanghai June temperature events tend to settle into a tight corridor because the airport station is close to the maritime-influenced Yangtze Delta climate and because day-to-day variance is usually modest in mid-June.[1][6] The current contract is settled on the highest reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 20 June 2026, so what matters is the day’s maximum, not the noon snapshot or a citywide average.[2] From a regulatory and access angle, German GlüStV rules can affect whether a user can lawfully participate from Germany, while US CFTC reach may be relevant where activity touches US persons or US-facing market infrastructure; “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller-volume participation may be allowed without full identity verification, but only within the platform’s own threshold and whatever local checks still apply.

Traders should watch the official station history page as the settlement source, plus any late-day weather changes that could lift the maximum before the market closes.[2] In practical terms, the key catalysts are forecast revisions, rainfall timing, cloud cover, and wind shift, because these can cap daytime heating even when the broader monthly pattern points warmer.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.