Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the region. May in Seoul typically falls within late spring, with average highs around 24–26 °C, though heat waves can push readings substantially higher. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical records for that specific date, with the final determination locked at 12:00 UTC on 26 May.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul show considerable variance. Over the past two decades, extreme highs have occasionally exceeded 30 °C during early heat waves, whilst cooler years have seen maxima in the low-to-mid 20s. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily uncertain about the exact threshold ranges available or expect below-average conditions. Comparable spring weather markets in East Asia have typically resolved around seasonal norms unless significant atmospheric patterns—such as early monsoon activity or sustained high-pressure systems—materialise weeks in advance.

Key variables for traders include the East Asian weather forecast trajectory from late April onwards, particularly any signals of early-season heat dome formation or anomalous ridge positioning over the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks and extended forecasts that often precede Western models by several days. Additionally, the specific temperature bands offered in this market's resolution categories will determine whether the crowd's current positioning reflects genuine uncertainty about the day's conditions or simply sparse liquidity at particular price points. Traders should monitor late-May atmospheric patterns and any official heat-wave advisories issued by Korean authorities in the weeks preceding settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.