Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical data archive. Late May in Seoul typically sits in the warm-to-hot range; the city's average high for that date hovers around 24–26°C, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or expect a specific temperature threshold to be excluded from the resolution range.

Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. The airport station has recorded highs ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 31°C during warm spells; 2020 saw 28°C on 25 May, whilst 2019 recorded 22°C. This spread reflects the unpredictability of late-spring weather patterns in the Korean peninsula, where maritime influence and early monsoon activity can suppress or elevate temperatures significantly. Comparable prediction markets on Seoul May temperatures have typically seen probability mass distributed across 20–28°C ranges, with tail outcomes (sub-18°C or above-32°C) attracting minimal trading interest.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events fall outside gaming licensing if they meet information-symmetry criteria; US CFTC oversight applies only if the platform is US-domiciled or targets US persons. Most European platforms offer no-KYC access up to €1,500 (approximately £1,280) in aggregate position value, meaning traders can participate in this Seoul temperature market without identity verification provided their total exposure across all markets remains below that threshold. Settlement timing closes 25 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC, allowing Wunderground's final historical record to populate before resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.