Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data archive for that specific date and location, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. Seoul's late-spring climate typically sees highs between 24–28°C in late May, though heat waves and anomalous weather patterns can push readings considerably higher.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty. Historical May 23 records at Incheon show considerable variance: the station has recorded highs ranging from 17°C in cooler years to 31°C during warm spells. Comparable late-May Seoul markets have resolved across the full spectrum of temperature bands, with no single range commanding predictive dominance. The absence of trading activity at launch means the current probability carries minimal information; early traders will establish the baseline as seasonal forecasts and climate models become relevant inputs.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from mid-May onwards, as these will provide the most granular guidance on atmospheric patterns affecting the Seoul region. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system in late spring typically drive Seoul's May weather. No major regulatory announcements or policy changes affect this market's accessibility; under UK and EU frameworks, weather derivatives below £1,500 notional value generally fall outside stringent KYC requirements, though individual jurisdictions vary. US CFTC oversight applies to US-domiciled traders, whilst German GlüStV regulations may apply depending on the platform's licensing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.