Highest temperature in Seoul on May 21?

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Market context

The event is the day’s peak air temperature at Incheon International Airport on 21 May, measured after the market’s 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. With the contract currently showing 0% YES, the implied read is that traders expect the final logged maximum to sit outside the higher temperature bands, even though late-morning warming can still move the day’s high by a degree or two. In seasonal terms, late May around the Seoul/Incheon area is typically mild to warm rather than hot; comparable climatology for Seoul puts daily highs in the low-to-mid 20s °C, with late-month warmth building gradually rather than in sharp spikes.

For context, this sort of weather contract is usually driven less by broad monthly averages than by whether a clear, sunny afternoon develops before the airport’s daily maximum is fixed. A small shift in cloud cover, coastal breeze, or a passing shower can keep the high in a lower bracket even when the surrounding week looks warm. On the regulatory side, accessibility is shaped by the venue rather than the weather: German users face GlüStV restrictions that can limit participation, the US CFTC perimeter remains relevant for market structure and enforcement risk, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller balances can be used with lighter identity checks, which makes this specific market easier to access but does not remove jurisdictional limits or account-level controls.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.