Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. This settlement relies on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground for that specific location and date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing across the range options.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with mean daily highs around 26–27°C but considerable year-to-year variance. Historical records from Incheon show June temperatures have ranged from lows near 15°C to highs exceeding 32°C depending on monsoon activity and pressure systems. The current flat probability distribution may reflect genuine uncertainty about whether 2026 will track closer to recent cooler Junes or warmer anomalies observed in 2018 and 2023, when temperatures approached 34°C.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña signals from late May onwards, as these drive regional temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 8 June, meaning final readings must be confirmed before that cutoff. Accessibility for UK-based traders falls under the Gambling Commission's remit; whilst German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks govern other jurisdictions, the £1,500 no-KYC threshold on many platforms does not apply uniformly across all prediction markets, and individual regulatory status should be verified before trading.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.