Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution draws from Weather Underground's historical database, which logs daily extrema for Seoul's primary aviation weather station. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's temperature range in Celsius.

Seoul's early June climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical June data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation; the 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show that seasonal forecasts become increasingly accurate within two weeks of the event, whilst longer-range predictions carry substantial uncertainty. Current meteorological models for June 2026 remain unavailable, making historical analogues—particularly June 2015 (32.6°C peak) and June 2018 (31.2°C peak)—the primary reference points for calibrating expectations.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlook, typically released in May, which provides probabilistic guidance on above or below-normal temperatures. The East Asian summer monsoon onset timing, usually occurring in early June, materially affects Seoul's thermal profile. Real-time tracking becomes actionable only in the final week before settlement, when numerical weather prediction models converge on reliable forecasts. The market's accessibility under UK and EU frameworks depends on whether the platform's KYC thresholds apply; traders should verify their jurisdiction's regulatory requirements before participation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.