Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 24 June 2026, which will determine the market outcome. Historical data for Seoul in June shows typical daytime highs between 19°C and 28°C, with late June often warmer and more humid as the monsoon season approaches [2][4]. Current market pricing assigns a 43% probability to 28°C and 33% to 27°C, suggesting traders view the 0% YES probability for the current frontrunner as an outlier or mispricing rather than a settled fact [1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover, as these directly influence peak temperatures [7]. Recent weather guides note that late June can be noticeably hotter with higher rain chances, making forecast updates critical for accurate positioning [4]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdiction: German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) implications may restrict participation for residents, while US CFTC reach could affect market legality for Americans. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows anonymous access for smaller trades, enhancing accessibility for this specific market without triggering identity verification, provided local laws permit such activity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.