Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

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Market context

The practical event is the day’s **highest recorded temperature at Incheon International Airport Station**, and June in south-western Korea is normally an early-summer month rather than peak heat. Typical Seoul-area June daytime highs sit around **19–28°C**, with humidity rising as the month progresses and the rainy season usually starting in late June; that makes a sub-30°C outcome the statistical centre of gravity, even if brief warmer spikes occur.[1][2][3]

The current **1% YES** implies the market is pricing a result at the very top of the available temperature range as a tail event rather than the base case. Comparable June climate profiles point to Seoul’s average warmest June days clustering in the high 20s Celsius, with temperatures above that possible but not routine, so a low YES price is consistent with the market’s use of the **day’s maximum** rather than a daily average.[4][9] For accessibility, German **GlüStV** rules can matter because they are often read as restricting access to gambling-style products for German residents, while the **US CFTC** can assert reach over derivatives-like activity involving US persons or US-touching conduct; “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” usually means a user may trade without identity verification until cumulative activity or withdrawals cross that threshold, but it does not remove geo-restrictions or legal status constraints for this specific contract.

Traders should watch the Korean Meteorological Administration’s short-range guidance, because the resolution depends on a single airport-station reading rather than a citywide impression, and local wind, humidity and rain timing can shift the day’s maximum materially.[5] The key dependency is the midday-to-afternoon warming window before any showers or marine air limit highs, with the market resolving off Wunderground’s daily high for **RKSI**; in weather markets, late updates to the forecast path matter more than the calendar alone.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.