Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Weather Underground for that specific location and date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. Seoul's June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot band; the city's average high in mid-June hovers around 26–27°C, though peaks regularly exceed 30°C during early summer heat waves.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological impossibility. Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance; the airport station has recorded highs ranging from 21°C in cooler years to 34°C during heat-driven summers. Comparable seasonal patterns from 2015–2024 suggest that outcomes clustering around 28–32°C represent the modal expectation, whilst extremes in either direction remain plausible but less probable. Early-season monsoon activity or high-pressure systems anchored over the Korean peninsula both influence the final outcome materially.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration and international weather services as June approaches; seasonal outlooks typically become reliable 10–14 days before the target date. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present in early 2026, may shift regional temperature patterns. The market's accessibility remains straightforward under most regulatory frameworks: weather derivatives under €1,500 notional value typically fall outside KYC thresholds in EU jurisdictions including Germany's GlüStV regime, whilst US CFTC oversight of prediction markets remains unsettled, leaving retail participation largely unimpeded for modest stakes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.