Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. Seoul's June climate typically sits between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The resolution source is Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly observations; traders should verify the specific station identifier (RKSI) matches Incheon rather than alternative Seoul-area weather stations, as microclimatic variation can affect recorded highs by 1–2°C.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul show considerable year-on-year volatility. The 2018 heat wave produced June highs exceeding 32°C across the region, whilst cooler Junes (2013, 2020) remained in the 25–27°C range. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse trading activity; comparable weather markets often show wider probability distributions when settlement windows remain open beyond two months. Traders should cross-reference Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts as June approaches, though long-range seasonal models carry substantial uncertainty at this distance.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based traders should note that prediction markets operating under the Gambling Commission's exemption typically require no additional KYC for stakes under £1,500 per market. German traders face stricter requirements under GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag), which classifies certain prediction markets as gaming products requiring operator licensing. US CFTC jurisdiction applies to derivatives contracts; however, non-leveraged binary outcome markets have received guidance suggesting they may fall outside CFTC reach if structured as wagering rather than financial derivatives. Traders should verify their platform's regulatory status in their home jurisdiction before participation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.