Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 12 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and reported in Celsius via Weather Underground's historical database. June in Seoul typically sees daytime highs between 26 and 29 degrees Celsius, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point count toward resolution.

Historical June data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variance. In recent decades, extreme heat events have become more frequent across South Korea; June 2022 saw temperatures exceed 32 degrees in the Seoul metropolitan area. Conversely, cooler Junes have produced highs closer to 24–25 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's highest temperature bracket to fall outside typical June ranges, though this may reflect low participation rather than genuine confidence in an unusually cool day.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for early-season heat waves or unusual weather patterns. El Niño and La Niña cycles influence East Asian summer temperatures; current oceanic conditions will shape June's thermal profile. The market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction: UK traders face no specific KYC requirements under GlüStV (German gambling licensing), whilst US participants may encounter CFTC scrutiny if the platform operates without proper derivatives registration. Non-KYC access up to £1,200 equivalent typically applies to weather derivatives on unregulated platforms, though this market's exact regulatory treatment should be verified against your local framework before trading.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.