Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The measurement will be drawn from Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates official meteorological records for South Korea's primary aviation weather station. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as highly uncertain across all temperature bands.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 25°C to 30°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 32°C during early heat waves. Comparable June temperature records at Incheon show variability driven by monsoon onset timing and subtropical pressure systems; the 2018 and 2022 early-summer periods saw notably elevated temperatures across the Korean peninsula. The absence of trading activity may reflect the market's specificity—weather prediction markets often see minimal engagement until nearer the settlement date, when forecast models stabilise and traders can calibrate probabilities against meteorological guidance.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and real-time weather models from mid-May onwards, as the East Asian monsoon's arrival typically suppresses June temperatures. Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on prediction market participation; US-based traders encounter CFTC oversight of derivative-like instruments; however, most European and UK-based participants can trade without KYC verification up to approximately £1,200 equivalent, reducing friction for smaller positions on weather outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.