Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 10 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport's official weather station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. Early June in the Seoul metropolitan area typically sits between 22–28 °C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the range buckets.

Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that early-June temperatures at Incheon have exceeded 30 °C in roughly one-third of years since 2000, with 2018 and 2023 recording notably warm periods. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, meaning traders must rely on forecasts issued 48–72 hours prior; real-time adjustments become impossible once the market locks. This compressed information window mirrors constraints in other weather markets tied to official station readings rather than broader regional averages.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require explicit licensing; UK-domiciled platforms typically operate under Gambling Commission oversight with no blanket KYC exemption. US CFTC guidance treats binary weather derivatives as potentially regulated instruments if offered to US persons, though many platforms enforce geo-blocking. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold cited by some operators applies only where local law permits it—notably absent in most EU and UK frameworks. Traders should verify their platform's compliance posture before committing capital.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.