Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport, the official meteorological station for the region. Early June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's resolution range to exclude the actual recorded high, a common pattern when range brackets are misaligned with seasonal norms or when settlement mechanics create ambiguity.

Historical June temperature data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. In recent decades, the highest June temperatures have ranged from 32–34°C during anomalous heat events, whilst cooler Junes have peaked near 26–27°C. The 2018 heat wave pushed Seoul's June highs to 33°C; conversely, 2020 saw more moderate conditions. Current crowd sentiment at 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or structural issues with how the market's temperature brackets are defined relative to realistic June conditions.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, released typically in late May, which provide guidance on whether June 2026 will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. El Niño or La Niña patterns influence East Asian summer onset and intensity. The settlement source—Wunderground's historical data for Incheon station—is reliable but requires verification that the platform's Celsius conversion and daily high extraction match official KMA records, as discrepancies between weather databases occasionally occur.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.