Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 21 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently pricing a 27°C outcome at 86% probability, while 28°C holds just 10% [1]. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability for any alternative range reflects strong consensus around this specific threshold, though historical July highs in the region often fluctuate between 25°C and 33°C depending on monsoon activity and urban heat retention.

Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show Seoul’s July 21 highs clustering near 27–29°C, with 2023 reaching 31°C during a dry spell and 2024 dipping to 26°C amid heavy rain [1]. This volatility suggests the current 86% weighting on 27°C is plausible but not guaranteed, particularly if weather models shift toward cooler, wetter conditions ahead of settlement.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation can alter the peak temperature within hours [1]. German GlüStV rules may restrict access for EU users without KYC, while US CFTC jurisdiction could affect traders above $1,500; the “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause allows smaller participants to access this weather market without identity verification, though larger positions require compliance checks.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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