Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market resolves using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated weather stations report sub-hourly peaks that may not appear in rounded daily summaries. Seoul's August climate typically peaks between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C; the current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside whatever upper threshold defines the YES range, though the exact boundary is not specified in available market documentation.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. The 2018 heat wave saw daily highs exceed 34°C for extended periods, whilst cooler Augusts have registered maxima near 26–28°C. Comparable markets on seasonal weather patterns indicate that traders typically underweight the tail risk of extreme heat in late summer, particularly when El Niño or Pacific high-pressure systems are active. The 0% probability here may reflect either a high threshold setting or genuine expectation of below-average heat for that specific date.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts released in mid-August, which will clarify whether high-pressure systems are positioned to drive heat into the Korean peninsula. Typhoon activity in late August can suppress temperatures dramatically; the Western Pacific typhoon season peaks in August–September, and any system tracking toward Korea would materially lower the likelihood of extreme heat on the 21st. Real-time station data from Incheon becomes available daily, allowing late-window position adjustments as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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