Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table in Weather Underground's historical data, not the summary Day High & Low figures, which occasionally diverge. Seoul's August climate typically produces daily highs between 28 and 32 °C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity in competing ranges.

Seoul's August temperatures have historically clustered around 29–31 °C on average, with extreme heat events (above 34 °C) occurring roughly once per decade. The 2018 heat wave saw Incheon reach 34.6 °C; more recently, August 2023 peaked at 32.1 °C at the same station. These precedents matter because they establish the plausible upper and lower bounds traders should reference when assessing which temperature range represents genuine value against the current market consensus.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat advisories in late July 2026, as these typically precede anomalous August temperatures by 2–3 weeks. Pacific typhoon activity and the position of the Tibetan high-pressure system in early August will drive whether conditions favour typical or elevated temperatures. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, allowing only morning observations to count; afternoon heat spikes will not affect the final resolution.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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