Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Seoul's summer climate typically peaks in late July and early August, with August highs averaging 29–31°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 35°C. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems or manual corrections create discrepancies between data sources.

Historical August temperature records for Seoul show considerable year-to-year variation. The city experienced a 39.6°C peak in August 2018 during an exceptional heat wave, whilst cooler Augusts have seen highs near 28°C. Current crowd probability sitting at 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity; comparable weather markets often show low probabilities for outlier ranges rather than genuine zero-likelihood events. Incheon's coastal location moderates temperatures slightly compared to central Seoul, typically reducing peaks by 1–2°C.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international weather services from late July onwards, as August heat patterns depend heavily on Pacific typhoon activity and high-pressure systems over East Asia. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 August 2026, meaning final temperature readings must be confirmed by that deadline. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under German GlüStV provisions if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC jurisdiction applies to US-based participants; the no-KYC threshold of $1,500 means smaller positions can be placed without identity verification on platforms offering that structure, though larger stakes require full compliance documentation.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?

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What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?

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