Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and measured in degrees Celsius. The market resolves to the temperature band containing the highest reading from the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with that source taking precedence over summary figures. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, meaning traders have until early afternoon Seoul time to assess final conditions.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show a median high around 29–31°C, with extremes reaching 34–35°C during heat waves and occasional dips to 26–27°C during monsoon influence. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific narrow range or sparse trading activity. Comparable East Asian airport stations exhibit similar volatility; Seoul's August weather is shaped by the Pacific high-pressure system and occasional tropical moisture from the Western Pacific, making mid-range outcomes (29–32°C) statistically more frequent than outliers.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's forecasts from early August, which typically issue 10-day outlooks by 5 August. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July can shift Seoul's weather patterns significantly; any tropical system tracking toward the Korean Peninsula would suppress temperatures. Real-time satellite imagery and upper-air patterns become critical in the final 48 hours. The market's reliance on Incheon station data—rather than central Seoul readings—means airport-specific microclimates (proximity to water, urban heat island effects) will determine settlement, not broader city conditions.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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