Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data published by Weather Underground for that specific station and date, with resolution occurring once the day's readings are finalised and archived.

Seattle's May temperatures typically range between 55°F and 75°F, though the city's maritime climate produces considerable variability. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme highs above 80°F on this date are rare; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the temperature will remain within lower bands. Comparable May 24th records at KSEA show most years cluster in the 65–72°F range, with outlier warm days (above 78°F) occurring roughly once per decade. This baseline informs how traders should calibrate expectations against the available resolution ranges.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and trader status. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events face stricter licensing requirements than financial derivatives, though cross-border access from the UK remains permissible for non-German residents. The US CFTC's reach extends to US-domiciled traders; however, many platforms offer no-KYC trading up to $1,500 notional exposure, which typically covers single-outcome weather markets at standard odds. Traders should verify their own compliance obligations before entry, as regulatory treatment of weather prediction markets continues to evolve across jurisdictions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.