Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature for 10 August is the figure that will settle this market, and the resolution source is the Weather Underground Daily Observations table for San Francisco International Airport rather than any headline high/low summary. That matters because the market is tied to the station reading at KSFO and to the exact temperature range that contains the day’s peak, so small late-day updates or a revised observation can change the outcome until the next day’s first datapoint is published. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES sits alongside an already-resolved style of pricing in which the market appears to be treating the likely outcome as fixed around the low- to mid-70s Fahrenheit range.

For context, August in San Francisco is normally cool for a US city, with typical highs around 68–72°F and frequent marine-layer suppression, so a reading in the low 70s is not unusual even in summer. Comparable market readings on Polymarket and related prediction venues have recently clustered around the same band, reflecting the same airport-based official observation standard and limiting attention to whether the peak lands just below or just above key bins. The 0% crowd probability is therefore best read as an accessibility and pricing signal rather than a forecast of impossible heat: the market can still trade at a token price if participants see the observed range as effectively locked.

On accessibility and regulation, Polymarket-style markets have faced scrutiny because products structured as event contracts can fall within the US CFTC’s reach if deemed derivatives or swaps, while German participation can trigger GlüStV gambling-law issues depending on how the product is characterised and offered. In practical terms, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means a user can generally open and trade with limited identity checks below that threshold, but larger balances or withdrawals may require full verification, which affects who can easily participate and at what size. For this specific market, that matters because the combination of a low-priced outcome and a relatively small no-KYC limit tends to keep participation broad, but still within a compliance framework that can restrict access by jurisdiction and account type.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.

Is Polymarket regulated by the UKGC?

No. Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). It is a decentralised prediction market operated under US regulation. UK traders can use it but do not benefit from UKGC dispute resolution or player protection requirements.

What are the HMRC tax rules on Polymarket profits for UK traders?

Polymarket profits are treated as cryptocurrency disposal events by HMRC. Each USDC settlement is a taxable event subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). For 2026/27, the CGT rate is 18% (basic rate) or 24% (higher rate). The annual CGT exemption is £3,000. Report via HMRC Self Assessment if your total crypto gains exceed £3,000 or proceeds exceed £50,000.

Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?

Yes. Polymarket requires KYC (Know Your Customer) verification for all users, including UK residents. You must provide a government-issued photo ID and a selfie. The process typically takes 5–10 minutes via their ID verification provider.

What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?

Betfair Exchange is UKGC-licensed, meaning UK consumer protections apply and winnings are typically tax-free. Polymarket is not UKGC-licensed — it operates under decentralised blockchain rules. Profits from Polymarket are subject to HMRC CGT as crypto disposals. Choose based on your regulatory preference and tax situation.