Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Resolution will depend on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC. The station's readings provide the official baseline for this market, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology or alternative weather stations within the Île-de-France region.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable variability. Over the past two decades, peak daily temperatures in late May have ranged from approximately 18°C during cooler years to 28°C during warmer spells, with a median around 22–24°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date, though this reflects uncertainty about future seasonal patterns rather than any technical impossibility. Late-May weather in Paris typically exhibits spring-to-early-summer transition characteristics, making both moderate and elevated readings plausible depending on Atlantic pressure systems and continental air mass positioning.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets operating without a licence face restrictions on marketing to German residents, though the underlying contract may remain valid. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives on real-world events; however, many prediction platforms operate under exemptions for small-stake contracts. Most platforms impose no KYC requirement for positions under €1,500 (approximately £1,280), meaning traders in eligible jurisdictions can participate with minimal friction. Traders should verify their own regulatory status before committing capital, as residency and citizenship determine applicable compliance obligations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.