Highest temperature in Paris on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 22 May, with the official window closing at 12:00 UTC. That makes it a noon cut-off market rather than a full-day Paris weather call, so early warmth matters more than any later afternoon peak. The crowd-implied 0% for the top band is therefore best read as a thin, early snapshot rather than a firm forecast, especially with late-spring temperatures in Paris often moving sharply on sunshine and wind direction.

Recent May norms put Paris in a mild-to-warm range, with average highs around 19°C to 20°C and occasional spikes into the upper 20s or even low 30s Celsius. WeatherSpark’s May climate normals show daily highs typically rising through the month, while historical Paris May records include 32°C. Against that backdrop, a market leaning to the mid-to-high 20s is consistent with an above-average warm spell, but a single cloudy or maritime day can easily trim the observed maximum by several degrees at an airport station.

For traders, the main catalysts are the latest hourly observations and any short-range forecast updates from the Met Office, Météo-France, or Wunderground’s Paris-Le Bourget feed before the settlement deadline. The relevant legal lens is also different depending on where you are: German users may face GlüStV restrictions on gambling-style products, US access can bring CFTC and geoblocking issues, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller withdrawals or positions may be usable without identity checks, but only within the platform’s stated limits and local rules.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.