Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. Resolution depends on historical data from Wunderground's weather archive for that specific date and location, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or minimal trading activity; historical June temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15–28°C, making most moderate outcomes plausible.

Paris-Le Bourget's June climate patterns show considerable variability. The station's 30-year average high for early June sits near 21°C, though heat waves have pushed readings above 30°C in recent decades—notably June 2022 saw peaks of 27–28°C across the Île-de-France region. Comparable European airport stations exhibit similar seasonal volatility, meaning traders should weight both typical seasonal norms and the increasing frequency of anomalous warm events when assessing range probabilities.

Key dependencies include Atlantic weather systems and high-pressure formations tracking across northern Europe in early June 2026. Météo-France's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days before the settlement date, will provide the most actionable signals for traders. The absence of scheduled meteorological events or known atmospheric drivers at present means the market will largely reflect seasonal climatology until late May, when medium-range forecasting becomes more reliable. Traders should monitor European pressure patterns and any early-summer heat advisories issued by French authorities in the fortnight preceding the resolution date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.