Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 22 June 2026**, measured in Celsius and mapped to the market’s temperature bands. The crowd-implied **0% YES** pricing indicates the market is currently assigning no meaningful probability to a YES outcome, which is unusual for a weather contract because even small forecast shifts can move a same-day maximum.

Recent context points to a hot June across Paris and France more broadly. Reuters reported on 19 June that French weather authorities were warning of temperatures reaching record highs, with peaks up to 40°C in parts of the country, and earlier reporting noted Paris was in an unprecedented May heat streak after France’s hottest May day on record.[4][5] That backdrop matters because the market settles on a single station reading at Paris-Le Bourget, so a citywide heatwave does not automatically translate into the top band unless the airport itself prints high enough on the day.

For accessibility, the regulatory angle is practical rather than theoretical. If the operator is serving German users, the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) framework can matter because prediction-market access may be treated as gambling-like activity, with KYC and product restrictions often used to manage that exposure. In the US, the CFTC has broad reach over event-contract structures when they are considered derivatives, so venue design and user geography remain relevant even for weather markets. “No-KYC up to $1,500” usually means lighter identity checks until a cumulative threshold is reached, which can make entry easier for smaller positions but does not remove jurisdictional limits, sanctions screening, or payout verification requirements.

The main catalysts are the late-day forecast revisions, any updated statements from Météo-France, and whether convection or cloud cover caps the afternoon high near or below the relevant threshold. Because the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, the market is effectively driven by the morning-to-midday temperature path and any last-minute model changes rather than overnight cooling.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.