Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date, capturing the peak reading across all hours. This market operates under dual regulatory frameworks: in the United States, the CFTC's jurisdiction over event contracts means binary and range-based temperature markets face scrutiny regarding commodity classification, whilst in Germany the GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) treats prediction markets as gambling unless they meet strict information-symmetry exemptions. For traders in jurisdictions permitting participation without enhanced know-your-customer procedures—typically those with positions under $1,500 notional value—this market remains accessible without formal identity verification, though settlement claims may still require documentation depending on the platform's domicile.

Historical May temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station's records indicate highs ranging from the low 60s Fahrenheit in cooler years to the mid-80s during warmer springs. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either deep uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve, or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks released in April 2026, which typically forecast whether the northeastern United States will experience above or below-normal temperatures for late May.

The critical dependency remains the actual weather pattern materialising in late May 2026. Jet stream positioning, Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, and any lingering winter systems will determine whether the day trends cool or warm. No scheduled announcements directly trigger this outcome; it resolves purely on meteorological conditions recorded at the airport station on that single date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on May 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.