Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. This is a straightforward meteorological event with no discretionary component—the data point either exists or it does not.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, though extremes outside this band occur roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder. Historical precedent shows that early June in the city rarely produces record heat; the last time temperatures exceeded 95°F in early June was 2008. Comparable weather prediction markets on Polymarket have shown that crowd pricing often underweights tail-risk scenarios (very hot or very cold outcomes) until within 72 hours of settlement, when meteorological forecasts narrow considerably.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast for the Northeast, which typically becomes reliable five to seven days before the event. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and any tropical system tracking toward the region would materially shift temperature expectations upward. Long-range climate models from NOAA, updated weekly, will provide the most actionable signal for positioning before late May. Current El Niño or La Niña conditions also influence seasonal temperature patterns, though their predictive power at the single-day level remains limited.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.