Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service operates this official observation point, and Wunderground's historical database will serve as the settlement source, converting readings to Fahrenheit as needed. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur, or that traders have not yet engaged with this market in volume.

New York's June weather typically ranges from 75 to 85°F, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s. Historical June records at LaGuardia show a maximum of 96°F (set in 1994), whilst average highs cluster around 79°F. The 0% implied probability indicates the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to establish meaningful odds across the available temperature brackets. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show that temperature-range contracts often see late engagement as the settlement date approaches and forecasts crystallise.

From now until the settlement window closes on 6 June at 12:00 UTC, traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast updates, typically issued five to seven days ahead. Late May and early June 2026 atmospheric patterns—including any Atlantic tropical systems or high-pressure ridges—will drive actual conditions. Under UK and EU frameworks, this market's accessibility depends on the platform's regulatory status; German GlüStV rules and US CFTC reach may restrict participation for certain jurisdictions, whilst no-KYC thresholds up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) could apply to qualifying traders, though individual platform terms govern final eligibility.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.