Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground. This specific data point will determine the settlement of the prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" outcome sitting at 0%, suggesting traders view the specific temperature range in question as highly improbable for this date.

Historical patterns for late June in New York City indicate daily highs typically range between 75°F and 89°F, with the average high for the month hovering near 83°F[6]. Recent comparable data from 21 June 2026 shows a high of 79°F against a historic average of 82.9°F, while the long-term record for the date reaches 98°F[3]. The 0% probability likely reflects a divergence where the market expects temperatures to fall outside the specific bracket offered, rather than a belief that extreme heat is impossible, given that June 26 often sees the month's peak at 83.6°F[5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecasts for the New York Metro area and any emerging heat advisories issued by local authorities, as these schedules directly influence temperature outcomes. A recent report from American Weather notes that record-breaking warmth has already occurred in Central Park earlier in the year, with temperatures nearing 80°F, establishing a precedent for early-season heat spikes that could persist into June[7]. Regulatory accessibility remains a key factor; under German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows immediate participation for retail users without identity verification, provided the transaction stays within this limit, though larger sums trigger standard compliance checks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.