Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which will determine the market resolution. Historical climate normals for LaGuardia in June show a typical maximum of 83°F, with record highs reaching 98°F in 2012, while recent forecasts for June 2026 project daily highs between 75°F and 88°F, suggesting the current 0% YES probability likely reflects a specific temperature bracket being deemed implausible rather than the event itself being impossible. Comparable cases from Robinhood’s climate markets indicate that traders often misalign bracket expectations with actual weather volatility, as seen in the 21 June 2026 event where actual highs of 79°F fell within a narrower range than anticipated, framing how to interpret today’s skewed odds.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports issued for LaGuardia, which provide the official temperature records used for settlement, and watch for any updates from Weather Underground, the primary data source, as dependencies on their historical database could affect resolution timing. A recent forecast from AccuWeather for June 2026 highlights that overnight lows may dip to 65°F, potentially influencing daytime highs, while regulatory developments remain critical: German GlüStV implications may restrict access for EU residents, US CFTC reach could expand oversight of prediction markets, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold means this market remains accessible to users without identity verification for smaller positions, enhancing liquidity but raising compliance risks. These factors shape the market’s accessibility and settlement reliability without altering the core weather event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.