Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the **highest afternoon temperature** recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 21 June 2026, with the market settling to the Weather Underground day-high for that station. The current crowd-implied price of **0% YES** is only readable against that exact settlement rule: if the official daily maximum at KLGA lands in the listed range, the market resolves accordingly, regardless of how hot other parts of the city feel.

Historically, late-June New York temperature markets tend to hinge on whether a broad heat dome arrives early enough for peak daytime warming before marine influence or cloud cover trims the high. LaGuardia has its own microclimate and is not interchangeable with Central Park, so prior warm spells in Manhattan do not fully map to this contract. The National Weather Service’s LaGuardia climatological record shows a normal maximum of 83°F for 21 June, with a record maximum of 98°F, which gives a useful frame for how far above average a genuine extreme would need to run.[4] Recent reporting of a severe NYC heatwave, with very high humidity and warnings across the region, also illustrates how quickly expectations can move when large-scale heat persists.[1]

From a regulatory and access standpoint, this is the kind of retail weather contract that sits in a grey zone depending on venue and jurisdiction. German **GlüStV** rules can matter because prediction markets may be treated as gambling products when offered to German users, while the US **CFTC** can assert reach where a market is deemed a commodity derivative or swap rather than simple gaming. A “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” policy usually means a user can trade or withdraw within that ceiling before identity checks are triggered, but it does not remove venue restrictions, tax reporting duties, or country-blocking; it mainly affects onboarding friction and small-ticket accessibility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.