Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several predefined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from historical weather data published by Weather Underground, using the peak daily reading across all times on that date. The 100% crowd probability reflects the certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded; the market's actual value lies in which range it occupies.

New York's June climate shows considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from LaGuardia spanning the past two decades reveals June 12 highs ranging from the mid-60s to the low 80s Fahrenheit, with a median near 75°F. Comparable markets on specific-date temperatures have typically seen probability mass cluster around historical averages and recent seasonal trends rather than extreme outliers, though heat waves and cool snaps do occur. The current flat probability distribution suggests traders have not yet priced in seasonal forecasts or atmospheric patterns specific to early June 2026.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of anomalous pressure systems or heat buildups in the Atlantic basin. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center publishes monthly outlooks roughly 30 days in advance; these often contain the first actionable signals for temperature regime shifts. No major regulatory announcements or policy changes affect LaGuardia's weather station operations, making this market's resolution straightforward once the date passes and historical records are published.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.