Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The National Weather Service operates continuous monitoring at this location, and historical data is archived on Weather Underground, the designated settlement source. The current crowd probability of 0% for any single outcome reflects the market's nascent stage; as the date approaches and seasonal forecasts solidify, traders will reassess based on climatological norms and emerging meteorological signals.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical highs occasionally exceeding 90°F during heat waves. The 11th falls within early summer, when Atlantic tropical systems occasionally influence the Northeast, whilst high-pressure systems can drive inland heat. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show considerable variance; the National Centers for Environmental Prediction historical database indicates that anomalous warmth or cool spells both occur with measurable frequency. The 0% crowd reading suggests either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity rather than consensus that a particular range is impossible.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast window (typically reliable 7–10 days out) as mid-May approaches. The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks, issued in April and May, will signal whether June 2026 is expected to track above or below the 30-year normal. Real-time atmospheric patterns—including sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the position of the jet stream—become actionable signals in the final fortnight before settlement. No regulatory barriers apply to UK-based traders under the German GlüStV framework for weather derivatives under €1,500 notional; US CFTC oversight does not extend to non-leveraged prediction markets settled on factual outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.