Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport and resolved via historical weather data from Weather Underground. The airport station sits at 2,250 metres elevation in the Valley of Mexico, where late May typically falls within the warm dry season preceding the onset of summer rains. Historical May temperatures at this location range from daily highs of 26–28 °C in cooler years to 30–32 °C during warmer spells, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 34 °C.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be the settlement outcome, rather than doubt about whether a temperature will occur. May 25 falls outside the peak heat window (June–July) but within a period of increasing solar intensity. Comparable years show variability: the Mexico City airport recorded 31.5 °C on 25 May 2015 and 28.2 °C on 25 May 2019, illustrating the 3–4 °C swing typical for this date. Cloud cover patterns driven by the Atlantic hurricane season's early development and local orographic effects substantially influence daily highs during this transition period.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable and remains subject to US CFTC jurisdiction over certain counterparties. Traders in UK and EU jurisdictions should note that no-KYC access up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) applies to weather derivatives on this platform, though settlement verification still requires standard identity confirmation. The Weather Underground API dependency means traders should monitor the platform's data feed status in the weeks preceding 25 May, as any service interruptions could delay final resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.