Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Madrid’s hottest reading for 22 May will be set by the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station, with settlement based on the final Wunderground record for the day. The crowd-implied 0% YES profile points to an almost locked-in expectation, but the useful comparison is recent market behaviour rather than the headline percentage: yesterday’s Madrid temperature market also sat heavily on 32°C, showing how quickly spring heat in inland Spain can become the consensus when forecasts are aligned. Official-facing projections cited by Polymarket have already pointed to a 32°C maximum, which is warm for late May but still well below Madrid’s all-time high of 40.7°C, recorded in July 2022.

For traders, the main variables are forecast updates, airport-station observations and any late-day shift in the local heat profile before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Madrid’s climate normally warms steadily through May, with average highs rising into the low 20s °C, so a low-30s outcome depends on clear skies, weak wind and strong daytime heating rather than an unusual weather regime. There is no obvious scheduled event dependency beyond the station reading itself; what matters is whether the final observation at Barajas matches the expected peak or slips by a degree. On access, the market remains subject to platform controls: no-KYC limits reportedly allow up to $1,500 in activity, while users in Germany face GlüStV-related restrictions and US-facing participation can attract CFTC jurisdictional scrutiny.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.