Highest temperature in London on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with resolution occurring after the settlement window closes at midday UTC. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no likelihood of an extreme heat outcome, though the precise range boundaries remain material to how that assessment distributes across the available options.

London's June temperatures historically cluster between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The Met Office records show that June 2022 saw a mean temperature of 15.7°C across the UK, whilst June 2019 reached 17.1°C; neither month produced exceptional highs at City Airport specifically. The current crowd sentiment reflects baseline seasonal expectations rather than any identified anomaly or forecast signal. Comparable weather markets on similar dates have typically resolved toward mid-range outcomes unless Atlantic weather systems or continental air masses create measurable deviations.

Traders monitoring this market should track the UK Met Office's extended outlook as June 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories issued in late May regarding high-pressure systems or heat-wave conditions. The North Atlantic Oscillation and jet-stream positioning in early June will influence whether Atlantic moisture or continental warmth dominates. City Airport's location in East London, near the Thames estuary, means maritime influence moderates extremes compared to inland stations; this geographic factor historically suppresses the probability of very high readings. No scheduled events or policy changes directly affect temperature measurement protocols at this station.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.