Highest temperature in London on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, converting to Celsius via the platform's settings toggle. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity across all outcome buckets.

London's June temperatures historically cluster between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The Met Office's 30-year average high for early June in central London sits near 21°C. Comparable prediction markets on UK summer temperatures have typically seen the highest-probability ranges settle around seasonal norms rather than outliers, though the 2022 heatwave demonstrated that June can occasionally breach 30°C in southern England. The 0% reading here likely reflects traders' concentration in a single range rather than genuine certainty about the outcome.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under Germany's GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag), prediction markets on weather events may require licensing depending on how they're classified. US CFTC oversight applies if the platform operates with US-based users, though weather derivatives typically fall outside direct commodity futures regulation. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per user per market, which would cover most individual positions here. Traders should verify their own platform's compliance framework before participating, particularly regarding tax reporting obligations in their domicile.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.