Highest temperature in London on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport weather station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical data for that specific location and date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or sparse trading activity at present.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The Met Office's 30-year climate averages show June mean maxima around 21°C for central London, though the City Airport site—positioned on the Thames estuary—can register slightly cooler readings than inland locations due to maritime influence. Recent comparable years offer calibration: June 2022 saw highs of 28–30°C during an exceptional heatwave, whilst June 2023 remained closer to seasonal norms at 20–22°C. This historical spread explains why traders should avoid anchoring to any single outcome.

The UK's regulatory framework for prediction markets remains unsettled; whilst the Gambling Commission oversees some betting products, prediction markets occupy a grey zone. German operators face GlüStV compliance requirements if accepting German users, whilst US CFTC jurisdiction applies to derivatives-like instruments with US persons. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to £1,500 typically operate under the assumption that sub-threshold transactions fall outside formal registration, though this remains contested. Traders should verify their own jurisdiction's stance before participation, as weather derivatives can trigger commodity or financial instrument classification depending on contract structure and settlement mechanism.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.