Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with the final reading locked at 12:00 UTC. London City Airport sits in the Isle of Dogs, east of central London, and its microclimate—influenced by the Thames and urban heat island effects—can differ noticeably from broader London readings.

June temperatures in London have historically clustered between 18°C and 24°C, though extremes occasionally breach these bounds. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible likelihood to the highest range options, which typically represent readings above 25°C or 26°C depending on market structure. Comparable June heatwaves, such as the 2022 event that saw UK temperatures exceed 30°C, remain statistical outliers; seasonal norms favour moderate conditions. The absence of trading activity at the top end reflects both seasonal baseline expectations and the specificity of a single-station measurement rather than a broader London average.

Traders monitoring this market should track UK Met Office forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly any alerts for unusual high-pressure systems or continental air masses moving northward. The North Atlantic Oscillation and jet stream positioning in early summer typically determine whether warm southerly flows materialise. Any official heat-health alerts issued by the UK Health Security Agency would signal material shift in tail-risk probabilities. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's recorded data; no adjustments or averaging occur.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.