Highest temperature in London on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which archives hourly observations from the airport's meteorological instruments throughout the day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no outcome to materialise within a specific range, though this reflects positioning rather than meteorological certainty.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18–24°C, with occasional excursions above 25°C during warm spells. The Met Office's 30-year climate normals place the June average high at approximately 20°C; however, the UK experienced a June heatwave in 2022 when London recorded 35°C, and June 2023 saw temperatures reach 28–29°C across the capital. These precedents illustrate why a 0% probability on any single range warrants scrutiny—extreme outcomes remain statistically possible, though less probable than moderate ones.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative sits within the German GlüStV framework's scope if offered to German residents, requiring compliance with state gambling authority oversight. US CFTC jurisdiction applies if the market operator accepts US traders, though weather contracts under $1,500 notional value typically fall outside mandatory KYC requirements in many jurisdictions. The no-KYC threshold up to $1,500 means smaller positions on this market may be accessible without identity verification, though operators remain responsible for aggregate exposure monitoring. Settlement timing closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, aligning with standard meteorological day conventions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.