Highest temperature in London on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily maximum temperatures in Celsius. London's June climate typically produces highs between 18 °C and 24 °C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or occasionally above 30 °C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending activation.

London's June temperature distribution shows considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade has recorded June highs ranging from 19 °C in cooler years to 28 °C during the 2018 heat event. The Met Office's long-term June average for central London stands near 22 °C, making mid-range outcomes (20–24 °C) statistically most frequent. Traders should note that airport-station readings often run 1–2 °C cooler than central London due to proximity to water and exposure; this systematic offset matters when comparing historical precedent to expected outcomes.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative sits within the German GlüStV framework as a prediction market contract, subject to licensing requirements in jurisdictions where operators hold permits. US CFTC reach extends to US-domiciled traders accessing offshore platforms; no exemption applies to weather contracts. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD per transaction applies here, meaning traders can place positions below that sum without identity verification on compliant platforms, though aggregate account activity may trigger enhanced due diligence. Settlement timing (12:00 UTC on 11 June 2026) aligns with standard meteorological observation windows.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.