Highest temperature in London on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the precise figure locked at the moment the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no conviction in any particular temperature band, or the market has attracted minimal liquidity.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, though extremes have occurred; the city recorded 32.0°C in June 1976 and 28.3°C in June 2022. Historical volatility in early summer weather patterns—driven by Atlantic systems, continental high pressure, or rare heat domes—means the outcome space remains genuinely uncertain. Comparable single-day temperature markets on established platforms show that crowd probabilities near zero often reflect either genuine ambiguity or sparse participation rather than strong predictive consensus.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on the trader's jurisdiction and account status. Under the German GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag), prediction markets on weather events may fall outside gambling classification if structured as information contracts. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives; weather futures and options face scrutiny, though prediction markets occupy a grey zone. For UK-based traders, the no-KYC threshold of £1,000–£1,500 (depending on platform) typically permits entry without full identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger enhanced checks. This market's weather-only focus and short settlement window reduce regulatory friction compared to financial or political markets.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.