Highest temperature in London on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—a position that reflects either extreme uncertainty or data unavailability at this early stage.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warmer years. The Met Office's 30-year climate averages show mean daily maxima around 21°C for early June, though the 2022 heatwave and subsequent warm summers have shifted trader expectations upward. City Airport, situated on the Thames estuary, tends to record slightly cooler readings than central London due to maritime influence, making historical comparisons from inland stations less reliable as direct precedent.

Traders monitoring this market should track the UK Met Office's seasonal forecasts and any emerging climate patterns through spring 2026. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices will influence June conditions; persistent high-pressure systems favour elevated temperatures. Real-time catalysts include May 2026 weather developments and any revision to seasonal outlooks issued in April. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, weather derivatives of this type typically fall outside direct regulatory reach when settled on objective third-party data. UK traders face no mandatory KYC for positions under £1,500 notional value, though platform-level compliance requirements apply regardless of stake size.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.