Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) by NOAA will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, after which NOAA's finalised hourly data becomes the binding reference. Istanbul's late May climate typically ranges from 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess no outcome as sufficiently likely to warrant backing, or the market structure itself presents accessibility barriers worth examining.

Historical May temperatures at Istanbul Airport show considerable year-on-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, highest daily readings in late May ranged from 22°C to 31°C, with an average around 26–27°C. Anomalously hot springs have occurred roughly once per five years in this region, driven by early-season Mediterranean high-pressure systems. The current zero probability may reflect either genuine uncertainty about whether any single range will be selected, or traders' assessment that regulatory friction outweighs the market's appeal.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different oversight regimes depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) classifies prediction markets as wagering products requiring specific licensing; UK traders face FCA oversight of derivative instruments. US CFTC jurisdiction applies to US persons trading on unregistered platforms. Many prediction market operators permit trading up to $1,500 USD without KYC verification, though this threshold varies by jurisdiction and operator. For UK-based traders, HMRC may treat settlement winnings as betting winnings (typically tax-exempt) or miscellaneous income, depending on trading frequency and intent. Clarifying your operator's regulatory status and your own tax residency before trading remains essential.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.