Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves once the Observatory publishes its finalised daily extract, which typically occurs within days of the observation date. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution may occur later pending data availability from the official source.

Hong Kong's May temperatures historically cluster between 28 and 32 degrees Celsius, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 34 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a baseline reference market. Comparable May days from the Observatory's records show that extreme heat events (above 35 degrees) occur infrequently during late spring, though they are not unprecedented. Current crowd positioning reflects uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular temperature band.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within the remit of the German GlüStV if accessed by German residents, requiring compliance with state-level gaming authority oversight. US CFTC jurisdiction typically excludes non-leveraged prediction markets under the Treasury Amendment, though traders should verify their own domicile's rules. Most platforms offering such markets operate under a no-KYC threshold up to approximately $1,500 USD in cumulative position value, meaning smaller traders may access this market without identity verification, though higher stakes or account aggregation may trigger enhanced due diligence requirements depending on the operator's jurisdiction and licence class.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.