Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution may be delayed pending Observatory confirmation of final readings.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28 and 32 degrees Celsius, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 34 degrees in that month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting price discovery or treating this as a calibration market. May sits outside Hong Kong's peak summer heat (July–August) and pre-monsoon extremes, making extreme outliers less probable than mid-range outcomes. Comparable May days from the Observatory's records show clustering around 30–32 degrees, providing a baseline against which to assess the market's offered ranges.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different oversight depending on trader jurisdiction. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing framework) treats prediction markets as gaming contracts, requiring operators to hold specific permits; UK-domiciled traders face FCA classification rules that typically exempt non-leveraged prediction markets from derivatives regulation. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on unregistered platforms, though weather derivatives themselves occupy a grey zone between commodity and gaming classification. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per user typically rely on this threshold to avoid triggering full AML/KYC obligations in most jurisdictions, though Hong Kong-specific restrictions may apply to residents regardless of bet size.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.